1.0  UNDERSTANDING SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY

We all know what a prophecy is. It is the knowledge of the future that may or may not turn out to be true. What then, constitutes a self-fulfilling prophecy? Let’s say I make a proclamation that “I’m going to have the worst day of my life”, chances are that I might act in a way that actually makes the claim come true. Similarly, if I say that “this is going to be the best day of my life”, my actions intentionally or intentionally might make my proclamation come true. If such a phenomenon takes place, it is said to have fulfilled a ‘Self-fulfilling Prophecy’.

1.1 The Definition.

            The most popular definition of self-fulfilling prophecy is “A self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when one person (a perceiver) causes her or his false belief about another person (a target) to become true.” (Merton, 1948)

Merton introduced the term self-fulfilling prophecy to refer to situations in which initially false beliefs become true.

A self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when a perceiver's inaccurate belief about a target initiates a sequence of events that ultimately causes the target to exhibit expectancy-consistent behavior, thereby causing the initially false belief to come true (Merton, 1948). Merton introduced the term self-fulfilling prophecy to refer to situations in which initially false beliefs become true. He argued that self-fulfilling prophecies explain a host of social problems, ranging from bank failures to discrimination against Jews and African Americans.

Some years later, Merton came out with further tweaks in his definition. The new one states “The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.” (Merton, Social Theory and Social Structure., 1968)

Karl Popper, a famous philosopher had this to say about self-fulfilling prophecy:

            “One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty of Historicism was the influence of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the "Oedipus effect", because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which led to the fulfillment of its prophecy. … For a time I thought that the existence of the Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural sciences. But in biology, too—even in molecular biology—expectations often play a role in bringing about what has been expected.”(Popper, 1976)

1.2  CONCEPT

                                                                                                                        

 The authors of the article “The Mediation of Mothers' Self-Fulfilling Effects on Their Children's Alcohol Use : Self-Verification, Informational Conformity, and Modeling Processes”, say that there is a broad affirmation that this process necessarily involves three core, sequential events.  (Darley & Fazio, 1980) (Harris & Rosenthal, 1985) (Jussim, 1986) (Snyder, 1984)

First, a perceiver must hold a false belief about a target. For example, a teacher may overestimate a student's ability, believing that the student is more capable than the student really is. Second, the perceiver's false belief must be communicated to the target by way of the perceiver's behavior toward the target. A teacher who overestimates a student's ability might communicate that belief to the student by calling on that student often, spending extra time with that student, teaching that student especially difficult material, and providing that student with feedback contingent on performance(Rosenthal, 1973). Third, the target must, in response to the perceiver's behavior, confirm the originally false belief. The student who is treated as if she or he is highly capable must ultimately learn more than other students in the class, thereby confirming the teacher's originally false belief that she or he is highly capable. Thus, a self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when a perceiver's false belief influences how she or he treats a target, which, in turn, shapes the target's subsequent behavior in the direction of the initially false belief.  Large amounts of research is spent for the second event, where identifying the behaviors through which perceivers transmit or communicate their beliefs to targets. (Madon, Guyll, Buller, Scherr, Willard, & Spoth, 2008)

To understand the concept with more intricacy, we should take a look at some of the most famous examples of self-fulfilling prophecies among various cultures, their legends and their witty anecdotes.

1.      Arab Culture

A variation of the self-fulfilling prophecy is the self-fulfilling dream, which dates back to medieval Arabic literature. Several tales in the One Thousand and One Nights, also known as the Arabian Nights, use this device to foreshadow what is going to happen, as a special form of literary prolepsis. A notable example is "The Ruined Man Who Became Rich Again Through a Dream", in which a man is told in his dream to leave his native city of Baghdad and travel to Cairo, where he will discover the whereabouts of some hidden treasure. The man travels there and experiences misfortune after losing belief in the prophecy, ending up in jail, where he tells his dream to a police officer. The officer mocks the idea of foreboding dreams but takes quiet note of the prisoner's dream. The officer convinces the prisoner that to follow your dreams is fool hardy, in which he agrees and returns to Baghdad. The officer returns home and discovers great treasures buried underneath his home. This is a story of what would have been had the man followed through on his self-fulfilling prophecy and ignored naysayers.

2.      Indian Mythology

Self-fulfilling prophecies appear in classical Sanskrit literature. In the story of Krishna in the Indian epic Mahabharata, the ruler of the Mathura kingdom, Kamsa afraid of a prophecy that predicted his death at the hands of his sister Devaki's son, had her cast into prison where he planned to kill all of her children at birth. After killing the first six children, and Devaki's apparent miscarriage of the seventh, Krishna (the eighth son) took birth. As his life was in danger he was smuggled out to be raised by his foster parents Yashoda and Nanda in the village of Gokula. Years later, Kamsa learned about the child's escape and kept sending various demons to put an end to him. The demons were defeated at the hands of Krishna and his brother Balarama. Krishna as a young man returned to Mathura to overthrow his uncle, and Kamsa was eventually killed by his nephew Krishna. It was due to Kamsa's attempts to prevent the prophecy that led to it coming true, thus fulfilling the prophecy.

3.      Shakespearian Literature (English)

Shakespeare's Macbeth is another classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The three witches give Macbeth a prophecy that Macbeth will eventually become king, but afterwards, the offspring of his best friend will rule instead of his own. Macbeth tries to make the first half true while trying to keep his bloodline on the throne instead of his friend's. Spurred by the prophecy, he kills the king and his friend, something he never would have done before. In the end, the evil actions he committed to avoid his succession by another's bloodline get him killed in a revolution.

The later prophecy by the first apparition of the witches that Macbeth should "Beware Macduff" is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Macbeth had not been told this, then he might not have regarded Macduff as a threat. Therefore he would not have killed Macduff's family, and Macduff would not have sought revenge and killed Macbeth.

4.      Roman Mythology

The story of Romulus and Remus is another example. According to legend, a man overthrew his brother, the king. He then ordered that his two nephews, Romulus and Remus, be drowned, fearing that they would someday kill him like he did to his brother. The boys were placed in a basket and thrown in the Tiber River. A female wolf found the babies and raised them. Later, a shepherd found the twins and named them Romulus and Remus. As teenagers, they found out who they were. They killed their uncle, fulfilling the prophecy.

5.      Greek Mythology

The best known example from Greek legend is that of Oedipus. Warned that his child would one day kill him, Laius abandoned his newborn son Oedipus to die, but Oedipus was found and raised by others, and thus in ignorance of his true origins. When he grew up, Oedipus was warned that he would kill his father and marry his mother. Believing his foster parents were his real parents, he left his home and traveled to Greece, eventually reaching the city where his biological parents lived. There, he got into a fight with a stranger, his real father, killed him and married his widow, Oedipus's real mother.

6.      Russian Literature

Oleg of Novgorod was a Varangian prince who ruled of the Rus people during the early tenth century. As old East Slavic chronicles say it was prophesied by the pagan priests that Oleg would take death from his stallion. To avoid this he sent the horse away. Many years later he asked where his horse was, and was told it had died. He asked to see the remains and was taken to the place where the bones lay. When he touched the horse's skull with his boot a snake slithered from the skull and bit him. Oleg died, thus fulfilling the prophecy. In the Primary Chronicle, Oleg is known as the Prophet, ironically referring to the circumstances of his death.

(Self-fulfilling Prophecy: Literature, Media, Arts)

1.3 Application and Understanding

Intentionally or otherwise, a large percentage of the population indulges in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either they are the ones making the prediction or the ones about whom the prophecy is about. We will look into the three incidents where self-fulfilling prophecies seem to occur the most.  

·         Teachers’ expectation of students.

·         Effects of Parents’ mediation on the Children’s alcohol usage.

·         Management  - Subordinate relationship

Before we dive in, there is another concept that is a core element in the understanding of the self-fulfilling prophecy. It is called the “Pygmalion effect”.  It is the idea that one's expectations about a person can eventually lead that person to behave and achieve in ways that confirm those expectations. (Brehm & Kassin., 1996)

A.     TEACHERS’ EXPECTATION OF STUDENTS

Self-fulfilling prophecy involved a lot of research. The primary field where this experiment was put to task was in the context of a student-teacher relationship. Studies have shown the effects of a teacher’s mediation in the life of a student and reflects on how that mediation will alter the course of the outcomes. There are three explanations for why students confirm teacher’s expectations: Self-fulfilling prophecies, perceptual biases and accuracy.

a.      Teachers' expectations sometimes produce self-fulfilling prophecies. Even when their expectations are initially erroneous, teachers may evoke from students performance levels consistent with those expectations(Brophy & Good, Teachers' communication of differential expectations for children's classroom performance: Some behavioral data., 1970)(Jussim, 1986)(R. & Jacobson, 1968).

b.      Second, teachers' expectations may lead to perceptual biases: the tendency to interpret, perceive, remember, or explain students' actions in ways consistent with their expectations. This type of expectancy confirmation exists in the teacher's mind rather than in the students' performance.(Darley & Fazio, 1980)(Miller & Turnbull, 1986).

c.       Third, teachers' expectations may accurately predict students' achievement.(Brophy, 1983)(Hoge, 1984). Accuracy refers to successfully predicting achievement without influencing it.

The founding basis of the SFP is that once a student has been pegged beforehand as, say, a "mischief-maker," "un intellectual," or "likely to be an introvert," the chances are increased that the teacher’s  treatment of this student will, in effect, help their negative prophecies or expectations come true. Here the SFP would work to the detriment of the student.

 On the other hand, the teachers  could peg a student as "cooperative," "a scholar," or "likely to be a self-starter," thus increasing the chances that their treatment of him or her will convey these expectations and, in turn, contribute to the student living up to the teachers’ original positive prophecy. In this case, the SFP would work to the student's benefit. Teachers, more often than not, get from students what they expect from them.

If we were to put the entire process in a sequential manner, it would go something like this.

1.      The teacher forms expectations.

2.      Based upon these expectations, the teacher acts in a differential manner.

3.      The teacher's treatment tells each student (loud and clear) what behavior and what achievement the teacher expects.

4.      If this treatment is consistent, it will tend to shape the student's behavior and achievement.

5.      With time, the student's behavior and achievement will conform more and more closely to that expected of him or her. This is known as the five-step model of SPF. (Tauber, 1998)

Since the third and the fifth step are relatively similar, we will explain briefly the first two steps.

a.      Teachers form Expectations

Some students might be at a great advantage or a disadvantage if we are to go by the school of thought that first impressions are the last impressions. More often than not we see teachers forming expectations of the students on the very first day. Teachers form expectations of and assign labels to people based upon such characteristics as body build, gender, race, ethnicity, given name and/or surname, attractiveness, dialect, and socioeconomic level, among others. "With labels, we don't have to get to know the person. We can just assume what the person is like.”(Oakes, 1996)

For instance, when we see an overweight person and a physically fit person together, we assume the best things about the latter and the worse things about the former. Even though our intention might not be, but subconsciously there are judgements being made.

b.      Teachers act on expectations

As identified by Rosenthal’s four-factor theory, there are four elements that teachers use to convey their expectations.  They are Climate, feedback, input, and output.

I.                    Climate: the socio emotional mood or spirit created by the person holding the expectation, often communicated nonverbally (e.g., smiling and nodding more often, providing greater eye contact, leaning closer to the student).

II.                  Feedback: Providing both affective information (e.g., more praise and less criticism of high-expectation students) and cognitive information (e.g., more detailed, as well as higher quality feedback as to the correctness of higher-expectation students' responses).

III.                Input: Teachers tend to teach more to students of whom they expect more.

IV.                Output: Teachers encourage greater responsiveness from those students of whom they expect more through their verbal and nonverbal behaviors (i.e., providing students with greater opportunities to seek clarification).

These four factors, each critical to conveying a teacher's expectations, can better be controlled only if teachers are more aware that the factors are operating in the first place. Even if a teacher does not truly feel that a particular student is capable of greater achievement or significantly improved behavior, that teacher can at least ACT as if he or she holds such heightened positive expectations. Who knows, the teacher very well may be convincing to the student and, later, to himself or herself.(Brehm & Kassin., 1996)

B.     EFFECTS OF PARENTS’ MEDIATION ON CHILDRENS’ ALCOHOL USAGE

Parents have always been encouraged to be more proactive about driving down information to their kids about the harmful effects of drinking – especially when teenage drinking has become a norm amongst certain groups. However, this may have a negative effect on the children. However, one study shows that if parents take it too far, a type of self-fulfilling prophecy might occur that could actually drive a child to drink.

There’s always talk about how an open discussion between parents and their children will prevent children from substance abuse. Again we bring in the study conducted by Stephanie Madon, an Iowa State University assistant professor, which appears to indicate that parental beliefs, specifically the mother's beliefs, could have a self-fulfilling effect when it comes to what the child actually uses.

This study consisted of a series of interviews that took place over a span of 3 to 5 years and involved 800 mothers and children. What Madon discovered she said, "was that the incorrect portion of mothers' beliefs created a self-fulfilling prophecy – teens behaved like their mothers had incorrectly expected them to." In essence, if mothers incorrectly believed that a child would drink more in the future, it created a self-view that actually led to the child drinking more as a teenager.

She goes on to say that “we hypothesized that mothers may influence who their children are friends with and that children may learn how to behave by watching what their friends do.”  Therefore, it is safe to say that a mother’s influence is highly like to create a self-fulfilling prophecy among the children.

She further explains, “When mothers overestimated their teens' future use of alcohol, the teens developed the self-view that they were likely to drink alcohol in the future, which ultimately led them to drink more.” Stephanie Madon then goes to explain the self-verification theory in her article.

This theory proposes that people are motivated to confirm what they already believe to be true about themselves. The study found strong evidence that a mother's beliefs regarding her child's likelihood of using alcohol altered her child's self-view in either a positive or negative direction. The child then validated that new self-view by acting consistently with it later on.

Madon explains that what believe in ultimately has an impact on what actually occurs. "But it's not just because they believe it. It's not magic. When we believe something -- even if we're wrong -- when we believe it's true, we act as though it is. And sometimes when you act as though something's true, your behaviors will cause the belief to become true."So I think the moral here is to help children develop positive and pro-social self-concepts about themselves, because children are likely to make choices that match how they view themselves," she said.  The data in the report suggested that mothers' self-fulfilling effects occurred, because children first internalized their mothers' false beliefs about their likelihood of drinking alcohol in the future and then self-verified those internalized beliefs through their subsequent alcohol use. Although we observed self-verification processes operating in the context of the mother–child relationship, self-views are often regarded as predictors of important outcomes across domains.

(Madon, Guyll, Buller, Scherr, Willard, & Spoth, 2008)

Since the third issue involves organizational behaviour elements, i.e. the self-fulfilling prophecies occurring between a manager and his subordinate in an organization, we put forward some opinions of managers whom we interviewed. This was done to attain a primary perspective towards the self-fulfilling behaviour and to get some insight on how such things effect an organizational environment overall.

2.0  INTERACTION WITH COMPANY EXECUTIVES

C.      MANAGEMENT-SUBORDINATE RELATIONSHIP

We managed to interview three different individuals each belonging to a different set of demographics, each holding a managerial position in his/her respective company(refer appendix). Despite this, there was hardly any variation in the answers given which indicates that there is a certain opinion about self-fulfilling prophecy that is agreed upon by most individuals.

The first question posed to them was regarding their opinion about the term ‘Self-fulfilling prophecy’. All the subjects had the same answer to give with little deviations. Basically, they agreed on the fact that a Self-fulfilling Prophecy can directly or indirectly influence and individual to behave in certain ways that they would normally not. This can be a positive as well as a negative influence on the individuals (in this case, the subordinates).

The second question had more to do with how the self-fulfilling prophecy can affect people in the organization and consequently their work performance.  Here again, we see a similar train of thoughts between the managers. One of the managers explains how he believes that an SFP influences the mind and therefore he prepares assignments/projects based on individual characteristics. Every individual is perceived to be unique and hence must possess a weakness. Therefore the need for supervision is all the more important. He explains how some members of the organisation are relatively week in accomplishing tasks. So he builds a positive self-fulfilling prophecy among all the staff to motivate and encourage the employees to believe in themselves that they are capable even if they aren’t. Results have been positively noteworthy.

Another interviewee however had his reservations over the effectiveness of the self-fulfilling prophecy. He claimed that his continuous encouragement and overly positive statements about certain employees led to major disappointment. He does believe that self-fulfilling prophecy plays a part in altering the behaviour of a person, but he feels that it is too trivial and it unnecessarily raises the expectations about certain individuals. Moreover, it causes undue pressure on those employees to perform up to those set expectations.

The third interviewee said that she had noticed that positive self-fulfilling prophecies had little effect on employee morale. But on the other hand her low expectations of her subordinates actually yielded significant negative results. To sum it up she believed that the degree of change in the behaviour of individuals is greater when negative self-fulfilling prophecies are established as compared to positive ones.

Let us examine some of the literature in lieu of the interviews here. Dov Eden from the Tel Aviv University explains brilliantly in his paper regarding the effects of self-fulfilling prophecy on employees. His paper, titled “Leadership and Expectations: Pygmalion effects and other self-fulfilling prophecies in organizations” is a perfect analytical journal highlighting the contrasting effects of the SFP on the workforce. (Eden, 1992)

The Pygmalion effect is a type of self-fulfilling prophecy in which raising manager expectations regarding subordinate performance boosts subordinate performance. Managers who are led to expect more from their subordinates lead them to greater achievement.

The article portrays how King (King, 1974), tested the effects of SFP on employees. He tested this by implementing it on four different industrial plants of the same company. The firm’s director of manufacturing presented the same changes differently in all four plants. Job enlargement was the innovation installed in two plants and withheld from the two enlargement-control plants, which got job rotation as a sham innovation. The second independent factor was the manager’s productivity expectations, which were raised for one job enlargement and one job rotation plant and unchanged in the remaining two plants. Thus, four comparable plants go different treatment combinations: a high-expectation enlargement plant, a high expectation rotation plant, a control-expectation enlargement plant and a control-expectation rotation plant.

The results were that neither enlargement nor rotation had as much effect as much as expectations did. Over the follow-up period, both high expectation plants increased output similar amounts even they received neither enlargement nor rotation, whereas output of both the control-expectation plants remain unchanged.

This is in parallel with what the first interviewee has mentioned. In complete contrast to this, we have ‘The Golem effect’ or ‘Counterproductive Self-fulfilling prophecy’.  This is in line to what the third interviewee had mentioned about negative fulfilling prophecies.

Self-fulfilling prophecy is a double edged sword. We have seen the positive effects of it. Now it is time to briefly examine the negative effects of SFP.  However, due to lack of studies done in organizational settings regarding low expectations due to obvious ethical reasons, we go to the next best study conducted. It is the study of expectation effects of physical education teachers on their pupils. (Babad, Inbar, & Rosenthal, 1982)

The study found that pupils about whom they imparted high expectations to the instructors performed best. However, they also found that pupils towards whom instructors harboured low expectations performed worse than those whom the instructors had high or intermediate natural expectations. This debilitating effect of low expectations came to be known by the authors as the “Golem effect”.

Moving on to the third question which asked the interviewees about their personal opinions about what roles a leader plays with regard to self-fulfilling prophecy. Two of them have answered that a leader has the responsibility to inspire his people. Hence, he should try to give positive prophecies as much as possible towards his subordinates so that they can achieve their performance as expected or even better. One of the interviewee however says that managers need to be careful before doling out positive expectations because it causes undue pressure on the employee and not necessarily he works better under trying circumstances. So the manager believes that refraining from commenting too much and letting the subordinates work out themselves what they are capable of is a safer bet than unintentionally damaging the performance quality of the employee by overstating or understating their expectations.

The fourth question asked the interviewees for their opinion on how they thought a positive or a negative self-fulfilling prophecy can impact their organisation. They explained that self-fulfilling prophecy is in the mindset of the manager. He perceives how the subordinate may or may not behave and accordingly assign goals and tasks. It is all about the right choice. If the manager is right with his gut instincts that a particular subordinate is capable of handling a positive self-fulfilling prophecy and proves it so, helps the organization move forward as a whole and vice versa. So it is mostly about judging individual characteristics about subordinates and assessing and individuals psyche, their ability to handle pressure etc then creating expectations about them. If either high or low expectations cause a less than preferred output then the company is impacted. Hence either way self-fulfilling prophecy will impact the company in a significant way.

3.0  ADDITIONAL LITERATURE REVIEW

Reviewing the number of useful articles we had, we decided to present the articles/journals that have not been used in the above study so far as just literature discussion or presentation. Since all of them give perspectives in light of self-fulfilling prophecy, we decided it was best to post the remaining articles in this section.

1.      In search of the Powerful Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.

In this article, the research examined those people who were appointed moderators of self-fulfilling prophecies that occurred naturally. There are elements like academic records and an individual’s achievement domain that determine whether some subjects were influenced by self-fulfilling prophecies more than the others. They also wanted to know whether positive or negative SFPs were more powerful or not and in to what degree.

Participants were 98 teachers and 1,539 students in sixth-grade public school math classes. Results yielded a strong pattern showing that teacher perceptions predicted achievement more strongly for low achievers than for high achievers. Results also yielded a much weaker pattern showing that teacher overestimates predicted achievement more strongly than teacher underestimates. Implications for social perceptual accuracy, self-enhancement theory, and understanding when self-fulfilling prophecies are stronger are discussed.

(Madon, Jussim, & Eccles, 1997)

2.      Do Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Accumulate, Dissipate, or Remain Stable Over Time?

The authors examined whether self-fulfilling prophecies accumulate, dissipate, or remain stable over time by using data from more than 500 6th- through 12th-grade students in public schools specifically in math classes. The authors used multiple regression analyses to assess the extent to which teacher perceptions predicted students' final math marks and standardized math-test scores from 6th through 12th grade. Control variables included 5 measures of student motivation and 2 measures of previous achievement. The results were consistent with both the dissipation and stability hypotheses. Implications for understanding the extent to which social perception creates social reality and the role of expectations in social problems are discussed. This study however had some limitations:

·         Perceiver data (teacher perceptions) was available only from 6th and 7th grade. Although these data provided the opportunity to examine self-fulfilling prophecies over time, it did not afford the opportunity to examine self-fulfilling prophecies produced by teachers' expectations before 6th grade or after 7th grade. However, previous studies have shown that dissipation occurs with teacher perceptions in early elementary school.

·         Another important limitation involves omitted variables. If teacher expectations and student achievement are caused by a third variable that has been omitted from the model, then the model may yield inflated path coefficients relating teacher expectations to student achievement (i.e., a spurious relation). Unfortunately, no matter how many potential sources of spuriousness are assessed, it is impossible to know if all such sources have been included.

(Smith, Jussim, & Eccles, 1999)

3.      The self-fulfilling prophecy in close relationships: rejection sensitivity and rejection by romantic partners.

Over here, the authors explained a self-fulfilling prophecy wherein rejection expectancies lead people to behave in ways that elicit rejection from their dating partners. The hypothesis was tested in 2 studies of conflict in couples: (a) a longitudinal field study where couples provided daily-diary reports and (b) a lab study involving behavioural observations. Results from the field study showed that high rejection-sensitive (HRS) people's relationships were more likely to break up than those of low rejection-sensitive (LRS) people. Conflict processes that contribute to relationship erosion were revealed for HRS women but not for HRS men. Following naturally occurring relationship conflicts, HRS women's partners were more rejecting than were LRS women's partners. The lab study showed that HRS women's negative behaviour during conflictual discussions helped explain their partners' more rejecting post-conflict responses. Moreover, their findings suggest how one person's relationship history could help shape the quality of the partner's experiences in subsequent relationships. Specifically, the destructive or healthy interactional processes set in motion by one person's relationship beliefs may alter the relationship beliefs of that person's partner in ways that influence the partner's subsequent relationships.

(Downey, Freitas, Michaelis, & Khouri, 1998)

4.      The impact factor as a phantom: Is there a self-fulfilling prophecy effect of impact?

This article investigates the question “can the journal impact factors regularly published in the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) be shaped by a self-fulfilling prophecy?” This question was investigated by reference to a journal for which incorrect impact factors had been published in the JCR for almost 20 years: Educational Research. In order to investigate whether the propagation of exaggerated impact factors had resulted in an increase in the actual impact of the journal, the correct impact factors were calculated. A self-fulfilling prophecy effect was not observed. However, shows that the impact factors for Educational Research published in the JCR were based on calculations that erroneously included citations of a journal with a similar title, Educational Researcher, which is not included in the JCR. This report concludes that published impact factors should be used with caution.

(Lange, 2001)

5.      Seasickness as a self-fulfilling prophecy: raising self-efficacy to boost performance at sea.

Field experimentations on self-fulfilling prophecy in organizations have shown that raising leaders’ expectation boosts subordinates performance. Applying the self-fulfilling prophecy (SFP) approach to combating seasickness, the authors experimentally augmented the self-efficacy of naval cadets by telling them than they were unlikely to experience seasickness and that, if they did, it was unlikely to affect their performance at sea. Naval cadets (N=25) in the Israel Defence Forces were randomly assigned to experimental and control conditions. At the end of a 5-day training cruise, experimental cadets reported less seasickness and were rated as better performers by naive training officers than were the control cadets. There was a non significant tendency for the experimental effects to be stronger among cadets of lower initial self-efficacy, suggestive of behavioural plasticity. Reducing seasickness by verbally enhancing self-efficacy is discussed as an application of "verbal placebo." These findings extend the generalization of the SFP-at-work model and suggest new arenas for its practical application.

(Eden & Zuk, 1995)

4.0  CONCLUSION

We have seen the how the term ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ had its inception. We have also examined the concept, theories and the various applications of this phenomenon across various walks of life. To conclude I would like to say that Self-fulfilling prophecy is all about how a person’s perception. Any individual has the potential to make a prophecy come true or act the opposite to it if he hears if he identifies with the expectations set for him. As mentioned earlier, Self-fulfilling prophecy can either be used negatively as well as positively. It has its pros and cons:

PROS:

·         Has the ability to successfully motivate individuals to do something that he/she would normally not do or would not be capable of. In other words, alter people’s behaviour to favour the seer.

·         Group SFP can have dramatic results in an organization where motivation and encouragement are vital ingredients to their success.

Cons:

·         Can alter behaviour of individuals to underachieve. If an individual gets influenced negatively by the expectations set for him, he/she will might eventually live upto those expectations.

·         SFP is a risky game. Yes, you might yield positive results, but there will be times when due to the added pressure of high expectations, individuals might fail and eventually the company.

Overall, I would say Self-fulfilling prophecy is a weapon that has to be used carefully. Without caution, this weapon may backfire, causing more damage than good.

5.0  RESTRICTIONS

·         Self-fulfilling prophecy is a relatively still a mystery. Therefore there were limited journals and articles that could be researched as compared to other Organizational Behaviour Topics.

·         There is limited research done on the effect of SFP in terms of Organization and its employees. Most research involved students and the teachers’ expectations.

TIDBITS: MODERN EXAMPLES OF SFP

·         Most "Force Visions" in the Star Wars universe are self-fulfilling prophecies, for example the plot of the 2005 film Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith was based around a self-fulfilling prophecy. The main character, Anakin Skywalker, has a premonitory dream about the death of his wife Padmé Amidala. He searches for a way to save her, and in desperation, allies himself with the evil Sith. However, it is Anakin's turn to evil that ends up killing Padmé. It is only when he meets with his son, that he actually fulfills the prophecy of destroying the sith.

·         In the 2008 film Kung Fu Panda, Master Shifu hears a prophecy that his nemesis Tai Lung will escape from prison. Despite being warned that "one often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it", Shifu dispatches a messenger to warn the prison guards. In doing so, the messenger drops a feather, which Tai Lung then uses to escape.

·         The 1999 movie The Matrix heavily incorporates the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies. One recognizable scene that directly references to it is when Morpheus takes Neo to see the Oracle. When Neo walks in to speak to the Oracle, she says "I'd ask you to sit down, but you're not going to anyway. And don't worry about the vase." Neo answers "What vase?" and turns around to see what she could be talking about, but in doing so knocks over and breaks a vase that was sitting on a counter next to him. Neo apologizes and the Oracle reminds him not to worry about it. Neo asks how she knew, to which the Oracle responds, "What's really going to bake your noodle later on is: would you still have broken it if I hadn't said anything?"

7.0 REFERENCES:

Bibliography

Babad, E., Inbar, J., & Rosenthal, R. (1982). Pygmalion, Galatea and the Golem: Investigations of Biased and Unbiased teachers. Journal of Education Psychology , 459-474.

Brehm, S. S., & Kassin., S. M. (1996). SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

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8.0 APPENDIْْX

Interview results

Interviewee A:

Company: .................)

Position: Manager (Department Head)

Experience in that position: 6 years

Number of sub-ordinate: 7 persons

Education background: Bachelor in Accounting

Age: 40

Sex: Male

1.       What do you think about self-fulfilling prophecy?

Self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that can directly or indirectly influence personal mindset that will affect the belief and behavior (action) about something or someone.

2.       As a manager, how do you think self-fulfilling prophecy could affect your people and their work performance?

Since the self-fulfilling prophecy influence the mindset, therefore I design/prepare the assignment based on the individual characteristics. Every individual is unique, but every individual has a weakness, so need more attention and supervise.

Even though the individual has weakness, but he/she need support to achieve the goal that has been set. Therefore, as a manager I try to build positive self-fulfilling prophecy to my sub-ordinate and encourage them to achieve the target.

There were conditions when I put too much positive prediction to someone, but then he disappointed me. While the one that I put negative prediction, gave me good result. The result depend on the individual, but as I gave positive prediction and positive behavior the outcome will be even better than I expected.

3.       In your opinion, what role do you think leaders should play in regards to self-fulfilling prophecy?

A leader should give positive prophecy to every task that wants to be achieved, so that sub-ordinate can make the performance as expected or even better. To make the prophecy become true, the manager can help by performing the planning, supervise and update the condition for every assignment. The important thing when the manager have positive prophecy bout someone, have in faith with that person.

4.       How do you think self-fulfilling prophecy could bring a positive and negative impact on your organization?

Self-fulfilling prophecy affect the manager mindset about how the task can be achieved and how the sub-ordinate will cooperate. The prophecy can be positive or negative impact based on the manager mindset about the task and sub-ordinate. When the manager feel optimism about the task and sub-ordinate, by automatically the manager will support sub-ordinate to achieve the goal, and this will be a positive impact not only for the department, but also for the organization.

Now, let say the manager feel so pessimistic about the task and sub-ordinate. The manager will not support the sub-ordinate; the matter of fact the manager might underestimate the sub-ordinate that makes the sub-ordinate lost motivation to do the job. Furthermore, the sub-ordinate can do bad things to the organization and leave the organization put the responsibility to the manager.

Self-fulfilling prophecy can be either positive or negative to the sub-ordinate depend on how the manager set mindset about the task and sub-ordinate. The important thing is, don’t ever judge a book by its cover.

Interviewee B

Demographic Details of the Interviewees:

 Age: 35 years

Number of years holding the managerial position: 10 years

Type of company they are working for e.g. banks, hotel or manufacturing: Manufacturing

Number of people they directly supervise: 08

Kindly comment on the following questions:-

1. What do you think about fulfilling self prophecy?

I think self-fulfilling prophecy is something that makes a person change their behaviour in order to fulfil certain expectation about him.

2. As a manager, how do you think fulfilling self prophecy could affect your people and their work performance?

Answer: It will be good for them to have a clear view about their performance which will enable them to overcome about some discrepancy in their work if there is any. They will acquire more motivation to perform better and better in future.

3. In your opinion what role do you think leaders should play in regards to fulfilling self prophecy?

Answer: A good leader must set a good example to perform the same what he/she is expecting from the subordinates to do. Basically he should put forward positive self-fulfilling prophecy for those who are weak.

4. How do you think fulfilling self prophecy could bring a positive and negative impact on your organization?

Answer: Yes it can impact in both ways i.e. positive and negative. If the individuals will take it as positive criticism and accept is as challenge they will be more motivated and will try to perform better than before. On the other hand if they will take it as personal it may result in de-motivation.

Interviewee C:

Demographic Details:

Company name: ............................

Position: Sales Manager

Experience in that position: 4 years

Number of sub-ordinate: 4 persons

Education background: Bachelor in Business Administration

Age: 29

Sex: Female

1. What do you think about fulfilling self prophecy?

Answer: As far as my books tell me self-fulfilling prophecy establishes certain expectations about an individual, which he/she may or may not reach.

2. As a manager, how do you think fulfilling self prophecy could affect your people and their work performance?

Answer: As a manager, I feel SFP does have a positive role to play. I can motivate employees to accomplish tasks faster. However, on the other hand I do believe that it causes unnecessary pressure on those that being prophesized. If an individual is told he/she can or cannot do a specific task, the mental agony it causes is something not everyone can take. I had an assistant whom I tried to motivate a lot. I feel he had the talent and I motivated him positively to undertake challenging tasks. However I was disappointed with the results as he bogged down under pressure easily and he resigned. Since then I do not promote the use of SFP on my employees.

3. In your opinion what role do you think leaders should play in regards to fulfilling self prophecy?

Answer: A good leader should be able to inspire regardless of any kind of SFP. He/she should motivate employees given their traits and apply the use to SFP only as a specific tool. Otherwise a leader should constantly motivate his subordinates in a realistic manner.

4. How do you think fulfilling self prophecy could bring a positive and negative impact on your organization?

Answer: It can affect my company both ways. Yes I do believe it may yield extraordinary results from my employees. However, it is too risky since it might backfire. I’m not in a position to take that chance with my employees right now as they are the assets I’ve got. (laughs out loud)

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